Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA on LinkedIn: 🚨Tesla is up +13% pre-market after reporting “better than feared” and for… | 15 comments (2024)

Tesla has a record +$29 billion in cash.Could invest the cash in a money market fund at 5% and make +$1.45B doing nothing.Wild.

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🚨HUGE EARNINGS WEEK!Over 40% of the S&P500's market value will report earnings this week.Magnificent 7 earnings kick-off today with Tesla.Profits for Magnificent 7 are expected to jump +38% in Q1 from a year ago.But if you exclude NVIDIA, expected net income growth for the group falls to 23%.This surpasses the S&P500's expected year-over-year earnings growth of +2.4% by a significant margin.Tech better not get wrecked.

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🚨Big week ahead for earnings:- Tuesday: Tesla, Visa, UPS & GM- Wednesday: Meta- Thursday: Microsoft & Google- Tuesday (next week): AmazonAlso we get U.S Q1 GDP and PCE (inflation report) on Thursday.Giddy up!📸Credit: John Haslett, CA(SA), FRM

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🚨Yields are rising across the board:- The 2-year yield surged to +4.95%- The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit +7.13%Meanwhile, Jerome Powell signaled yesterday "higher for longer" on interest ratesHe's got an almost impossible job on his hands.Wouldn't trade places with him for anything.

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🚨The U.S dollar is on a tear. On track for its best run in more than a year.Why? Higher for longer interest rates and increased geopolitical risk.The first FED cut not expected until September.Money market funds just reached an all-time high of +$6.1 trillion.Don’t fight the U.S dollar!

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Stocks down always go up ; (S&P down -1.69% this week...Let's recap: - Gold hits new record high of +$2,400/oz. Now up +23% over last 6 months (+40% higher than S&P)- Costco selling as much as $200 million in gold bars monthly- VIX up +25% today. Up +50% from low 3 weeks ago- JPMorgan beats earnings (+6% YoY), but outlook for Net Interest Income lower than analyst expect for 2024. Stock down -6.47% today- Citigroup beat Q1 estimates (but profits down -27% YoY on higher expenses)- Wells Fargo beat Q1 estimates (but EPS down slightly YoY)- March CPI +0.4% MoM above expectations of +0.3% MoM (up +3.5% YoY vs +3.4% expected). Third month of “hotter than expected” readings- WSJ analysis found that a commonly purchased basket of supermarket goods increased in price by +36.5% over past 4 years (+8.1% per year), much higher than US Government CPI figures which show food price inflation of +24.9% (+5.7%/year)- US gas prices +16% so far this year ($3.71/gallon)- U.S auto insurance rates up +22% YoY. Biggest 1-year spike since 1976.- U.S 10-year yield hit +4.54%, the most since November 2023- US 30-year average mortgage rates hit 7% again- Average interest rate on US credit card balances now 21.6% (Highest rate since data started in 1994)-Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan says interest rates could hit 8% or more-Larry Summers, Former Treasury Secretary: “You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards”-Money-market fund assets hit new record high of +$6.11 trillion-Interest rate futures pricing in 13% chance of ZERO rate cuts this year. Now only 2 cuts expected in 2024. This is down from 7 cuts projected just a few month back.- Elon Musk says that AI will be smarter than the smartest human by next year- VC funding in the U.S is down 30% YoY in Q1- Billionaire Steve Cohen says his financial firm can already save $25 million by using AI- U.S office vacancies hit record high of +19.8%- Largest office building in St.Louis sold for $3.5MM, in 2005 it sold for $205MM. Probably nothing- Norfolk Southern to pay $600MM to settle a class action lawsuit over Feb. 2023 East Palestine, Ohio train derailment that spilled toxic chemicals-JPMorgan says stocks are so crowded they may crack at any time- Ken Griffin of Citadel says: “It is irresponsible for the U.S. government to incur a deficit of 6.4% when unemployment is hovering around 3.75%. We must stop borrowing at the expense of future generations.”- Interest payments on U.S debt continues to hit record highs.Have an amazing weekend everyone!I will be kicking my feet up, drinking coronas and watching the Masters 🍻

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This isn’t bitcoin, tech stocks or even U.S federal debt. It’s the price of gold hitting new record high! Is anyone paying attention?

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